洽洽食品(002557)：25Q1业绩承压 静待后续改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and distribution channels, despite facing challenges in profit margins and traditional sales channels [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit were 7.131 billion and 849 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 4.79% and 5.82% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 2.374 billion and 223 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.99% but a decline in net profit by 24.79% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit dropped to 1.571 billion and 77 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 13.76% and 67.88% [1]. Product Performance - Key products showed robust growth, with revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other products reaching 4.381 billion, 1.923 billion, and 773 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 9.74%, and 8.04% [1]. - The company is focusing on establishing its brand in the sunflower seed market and has launched new products like "Da Shou" peanuts, which have seen rapid sales growth [1]. - The high-end sunflower seed product "Kuaizhen" is expanding through new channels such as high-end membership stores and boutique supermarkets [1]. Channel Development - New channels such as volume sales and e-commerce are growing rapidly, while traditional channels are under pressure [2]. - In 2024, revenue from southern, northern, eastern regions, e-commerce, and overseas markets were 2.266 billion, 1.343 billion, 2.121 billion, 779 million, and 569 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.88%, -3.25%, 9.47%, 8.86%, and 10.28%, respectively [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 99 to 1,380, but average distributor income increased by 6% to 4.11 million yuan per distributor [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin and net margin improved by 2.02 and 0.12 percentage points to 28.78% and 11.92%, respectively, in 2024 [3]. - In Q4 2024, due to rising raw material prices, the overall cost increased as the company utilized both reserve and newly procured raw materials [3]. - For Q1 2025, gross margin and net margin decreased to 19.47% and 4.93%, with changes in expense ratios reflecting a mixed trend [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.4 billion, 7.8 billion, and 8.2 billion yuan in 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 5% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 720 million, 850 million, and 920 million yuan, with a projected year-on-year decline of 15% in 2025, followed by increases in subsequent years [4]. - The company aims to enhance business growth quality and maintain a "buy" rating based on its strategic initiatives [4].