【环球财经】新加坡银行：美债风险加剧 美元仍承压

Group 1 - The report from Bank of Singapore indicates that despite easing US-China trade tensions, the US economy's uncertain growth outlook and high fiscal deficit continue to exert structural depreciation pressure on the US dollar [1][2] - The report forecasts that the euro may rise to 1.23 against the dollar and the dollar may fall to 132 against the yen in the next 12 months due to weak economic conditions and reduced asset allocation by non-US investors [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the US has decreased from approximately 18% at the beginning of the year to nearly 8%, but remains significantly higher than the 2% to 3% levels seen before 2018 [1] Group 2 - Concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy are reflected in rising long-term Treasury yields, with government debt as a percentage of GDP returning to levels seen during World War II [2] - The forecast for the USD/CNY exchange rate has been adjusted from 7.40 to 7.10, reflecting improved US-China relations, although China is unlikely to favor a rapid appreciation of the yuan [2] - The report highlights the accumulation of risks associated with the US twin deficits (fiscal and current account), suggesting that unless US bond yields rise further, the dollar may struggle to attract sufficient external capital to maintain exchange rate stability [2]