澳洲利率两年来首次跌至“3”字头 联储释放宽松信号

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first time since 2023 that the rate has fallen below 4%, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Economic Conditions - Inflation has significantly decreased from its peak in 2022, with expectations to stabilize at 2.6% over the next three years, but economic growth is under pressure [2] - GDP growth is projected to be 1.8% by June 2025, with subsequent years at 2.2% for both 2026 and 2027 [3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, reaching 4.2% by June 2025 and stabilizing at 4.3% for 2026 and 2027 [3] - In a trade war scenario, the unemployment rate could approach 6%, with GDP potentially declining by over 3% and the Australian dollar depreciating by about 6% [3] Global Risks and Policy Outlook - The RBA has noted a significant increase in global economic uncertainty and financial market volatility over the past three months [4] - Geopolitical tensions may further weaken global economic activity, potentially leading households and businesses to delay spending, which would negatively impact Australia's growth, employment, and inflation outlook [4] - If trade tensions ease, global economic growth may accelerate, potentially reducing the extent of future rate cuts by the RBA [4] - Future cash rate predictions include 4.0% by June 2025 and a decrease to 3.2% by June 2026 and 2027, indicating that future policy direction will heavily depend on inflation control and external economic conditions [4]