从“微笑”变“皱眉” ，美元即将出现二次探底？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the US dollar is driven by favorable sentiment, but concerns over policy uncertainty and debt sustainability are shaking investor confidence in dollar assets [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The "Dollar Smile Curve" theory, proposed by economist Stephen Jen in 2001, suggests that the dollar strengthens under two extreme conditions: when the US economy outperforms others or during significant global economic and political uncertainty [2] - Historical data shows that since 1980, the dollar index has risen during 4 out of 6 US recessions, indicating some validity to the "Dollar Smile Curve" theory [5] - Current conditions have shifted, with US tariff policies and fiscal sustainability becoming key factors influencing dollar movements, leading to a potential "Dollar Frown Curve" [5] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The US debt has reached $36.21 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year [7] - Rating agencies, including Moody's, warn that the US is facing a structural dilemma of long-term deficits and political dysfunction [7] Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - The resilience of the US economy, a prerequisite for the "Dollar Smile Curve," is under scrutiny, with concerns about extreme tariff levels and rising inflation risks [8] - Prominent figures, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, caution that the market may be underestimating the long-term risks associated with trade policies and US debt [8][9] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about balancing inflation pressures and recession risks, with officials indicating a preference for a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate adjustments [9]