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澳洲联储“鸽派”降息25基点 澳元延续跌势
智通财经网·2025-05-20 06:42

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking a two-year low, in response to increasing global uncertainties [1] - The Australian dollar fell by 0.5%, and yields on three sensitive bonds dropped by 7 basis points as traders increased bets on the RBA easing policy by 2026 [1] - The RBA's cautious stance is influenced by various uncertainties, including geopolitical issues, trade, domestic demand, wages, and corporate pricing behavior [1][2] Group 2 - The RBA anticipates that the final scope of tariffs and other countries' policy responses remain highly uncertain, which could negatively impact global economic activity [2] - Following a significant victory by the center-left government in Australia, there are concerns regarding potential structural deficits and the risk to Australia's AAA credit rating due to proposed expansionary fiscal plans [2] - The RBA's latest quarterly macroeconomic forecast suggests that potential inflation will slow slightly, reaching the midpoint of its 2-3% target range, with a slight easing in the labor market expected [2] Group 3 - The RBA aims to balance slowing price growth while maintaining labor market growth, a strategy that has faced criticism but appears to be effective as core inflation has returned to target levels for the first time in over three years [3] - The RBA has indicated that inflation risks are now balanced, with upward risks diminishing due to anticipated pressures from international developments [3]