美联储的近忧与远虑

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, marking the third consecutive time it has refrained from adjusting rates after a series of cuts in the previous year [1][2] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve and stated that the current policy is appropriately restrictive, indicating that President Trump's calls for rate cuts will not influence their decisions [1][2] - Despite a contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter, April's consumer and employment data suggest resilience in economic growth, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [2][3] Group 2 - Inflation indicators show that the March CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 2.8%, both below market expectations [3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, still above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The Fed's statement highlighted an increase in uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with risks of high unemployment and inflation both rising [3][5] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that short-term inflation may rise due to tariff impacts, but falling energy prices and unstable demand could alleviate inflationary pressures [4][5] - Powell expressed concerns about the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their potential long-term effects on economic growth and inflation [5][6] - The current economic outlook indicates that the Fed may not need to cut rates immediately, but the ongoing uncertainty could lead to a future rate cut [6][7]