刘煜辉：A500目前的赔率非常高 要抓住中国资产“倒车接人”的战略机会

Core Viewpoint - The increasing dominance of China's manufacturing sector is creating a mismatch with the declining financial hegemony of the US dollar, which is seen as a root cause of current conflicts [1][2] Manufacturing Industry - China's total manufacturing output accounted for 35% of global manufacturing by the end of last year, and it is projected to reach 45% by 2030 [2] - The trend indicates that the combined manufacturing output of economies ranked second to tenth is still less than that of China, highlighting China's growing manufacturing strength [2] Economic Structure - The current global economic structure, dominated by the US dollar, is becoming increasingly misaligned with China's growing manufacturing capabilities [2] - The US is experiencing a significant current account deficit, necessitating foreign capital inflows to balance its economy, which is becoming more challenging due to high interest rates [3] Strategic Competition - The ongoing trade and tariff wars between the US and China represent a broader struggle for a new global order, with both nations engaged in a strategic competition [1][4] - The outcome of this competition will determine the future distribution of global financial power, with the potential for significant rewards for the winning side [2] Policy Recommendations - China should adopt three strategies: increasing openness by potentially achieving zero tariffs, promoting economic balance by reallocating resources towards domestic consumption, and enhancing marketization by eliminating discrimination against private enterprises [3] - The importance of dynamic game theory in understanding the interactions between the US and China is emphasized, as decisions by one party significantly impact the other [4] Investment Opportunities - The long-term strategic competition suggests that gold is a suitable asset for investment, with significant potential for appreciation [4] - The establishment of the CSI A500 index represents a valuable opportunity for investors to engage with China's core assets during this period of strategic competition [4]