华安基金：经历大幅回调后，黄金得到健康修正

Key Points - The recent significant pullback in gold prices, with London spot gold closing at $3,202 per ounce (-3.7%) and domestic AU9999 gold at 746 yuan per gram (-5.0%) [1] - The rise in the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield by 6 basis points to 4.43% [1] - Easing of U.S.-China tariff negotiations has led to increased risk aversion, causing gold prices to initially drop before recovering to around $3,200 [1] - The dual impact of Middle East conflicts and the Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating has raised concerns about U.S. fiscal health, injecting strong risk diversification momentum into the market [1] Market Analysis - The surge in gold prices due to the April tariff escalation has concluded with the easing signals since April 23, leading to a healthy correction of previously overheated gold prices [2] - The current pricing of gold reflects a sufficient discounting of the tariff easing event, with a maximum pullback of 8-10% from the $3,500 high [2] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the U.S. are expected to gradually transmit, despite the easing of tariffs, as prior tariff impacts have not yet fully reflected in economic data [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still in progress, with expectations for three rate cuts this year, benefiting gold [2] - The weakening of U.S. dollar credit due to U.S. debt issues supports central bank gold purchases, with a current ten-year Treasury yield of 4% and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 130% [2] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on U.S. debt issues and economic stagflation pressures, and consider positioning in gold ETFs (518880) and related funds (A class 000216/C class 000217) [2] Upcoming Signals - Key signals to watch for the gold ETF (518880) in the coming week include U.S. April new home sales and a speech by the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman [3]