余伟文：港汇及港息走势变数仍较多 目前低利率环境未必持续

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity of the Hong Kong dollar has become very abundant in the short term, leading to a significant decrease in interbank short-term interest rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The changes in interest rates reflect normal market behavior under the linked exchange rate system and are beneficial for the current economic environment in Hong Kong [1] - The widening interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US increases the incentive for dollar carry trades, causing the Hong Kong dollar to weaken from 7.75 to 7.82 against the US dollar since early May [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - If the supply of funds continues to exceed demand, the market forces from carry trades may weaken the Hong Kong dollar, leading to a potential rise in Hong Kong interbank interest rates, possibly approaching US interest rate levels [1] - The duration and intensity of this process remain highly uncertain [1]