加拿大4月通胀率降至1.7%：能源价格暴跌与核心通胀隐忧并存

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada decreased from 2.3% in March to 1.7% in April, slightly above market expectations of 1.6% and the Bank of Canada's forecast of 1.5% [1] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a significant drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices falling by 18.1% and natural gas prices by 14.1% [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding energy, rose to 2.9% from 2.5% in March, indicating persistent structural inflationary pressures [2][4] Inflation Data Overview - Year-on-year inflation rate: 1.7% (down from 2.3% in March), mainly due to a 12.7% drop in energy prices [1] - Monthly inflation rate: decreased by 0.1%, better than analysts' expectations of a 0.2% decline [1] - Core CPI median increased from 2.8% in March to 3.2%, the highest since March 2024 [3] Structural Inflation Dynamics - CPI excluding extreme values rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, reaching a 13-month high [4] - Food prices in stores increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with fresh beef (+16.2%), coffee and tea (+13.4%), and fresh vegetables (+3.7%) being significant contributors [4] - Restaurant food prices rose by 3.6%, reflecting persistent inflation in the service sector [4] Tourism and Service Prices - Travel prices increased by 6.7% year-on-year, rebounding by 3.7% month-on-month, indicating a seasonal demand recovery [5] Policy Implications - The Bank of Canada has paused its interest rate cuts, with core inflation becoming a focal point ahead of the June 4 rate decision [5] - The central bank has cut rates seven times since June 2024 and emphasized the need to act decisively to control inflation if necessary [5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been embedded in final prices, with ongoing monitoring of international trade policies [5]