NVIDIA vs. Super Micro: Which AI Hardware Stock Should You Bet On?

Core Viewpoint - The article compares NVIDIA Corporation and Super Micro Computer, Inc. as key players in the AI hardware market, highlighting NVIDIA's dominance and growth potential while noting Super Micro's high-risk, high-reward profile [1][21]. Group 1: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVIDIA is a leader in AI chips, data centers, gaming, and autonomous vehicles, with data center revenues surging 93% year-over-year to $35.58 billion in Q4 of fiscal 2025 [3][7]. - The company is launching its Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin platforms, expected to enhance its position as a primary AI infrastructure provider [5]. - Despite facing export restrictions on H20 chips to China, which could cost $15 billion in sales and $5.5 billion in charges in Q1 of fiscal 2026, NVIDIA anticipates revenues of $43 billion (+/-2%) in Q1 of fiscal 2026, reflecting over 65% year-over-year growth [6][7]. - NVIDIA's earnings estimate for fiscal 2026 indicates a year-over-year growth of 43%, with a stable earnings estimate revision trend compared to Super Micro [13][22]. Group 2: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) - Super Micro's growth is driven by the increasing demand for high-performance, energy-efficient servers for AI workloads, particularly among cloud service providers and enterprises [8][9]. - The company faces near-term challenges, including delayed purchasing decisions and margin contraction due to price competition, leading to a revised revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 from $23.5-$25.0 billion to $21.8-$22.6 billion [10][11]. - The earnings estimate for fiscal 2025 indicates a year-over-year decline of 6%, while fiscal 2026 shows a growth of 36, with a highly volatile earnings estimate revision trend [13][22]. Group 3: Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, NVIDIA shares have increased by 42.8%, while Super Micro shares have decreased by 50.6% [16]. - NVIDIA's current price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is 29.25X, lower than its one-year median of 37.28X, while Super Micro's P/E multiple is 16.41X, slightly above its one-year median of 16.10X [18]. - Although Super Micro appears cheaper on a P/E basis, it carries significantly more volatility and execution risk [20].