Criteo Stock Plunges 29% YTD: Should You Buy the Dip or Wait?

Core Viewpoint - Criteo (CRTO) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, losing 29.2% year-to-date, which is notably worse than the broader market indices and its industry peers [1][2]. Company Performance - The underperformance of Criteo's stock is attributed to tariffs and inflation affecting the industry, but the company is positioned for long-term growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2]. - In Q1 2025, Criteo's Retail Media on-platform revenues increased by 21% year-over-year, driven by heightened demand from advertisers and retailers [3]. - Off-platform monetization also saw growth, supported by a 60% increase in supply partners, indicating successful partnerships with retailers like Michaels, Dollar Tree, and Meijer [3]. Strategic Focus - Criteo is transitioning from its legacy retargeting business to focus on high-growth areas such as Retail Media and Commerce Audiences, with over 250 brands onboarded to its expanded platform [4]. - The company is enhancing its offerings with new features like dynamic sponsored products and video ads, which have strengthened its product suite [9]. Competitive Landscape - Criteo competes with major tech companies like Amazon, Google, and The Trade Desk, which have also seen declines in their stock prices [5]. - Criteo differentiates itself by providing retailer-direct access and a transparent, demand-driven platform that aligns with first-party data needs, leveraging its broad retail network and proprietary technology [6]. Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Criteo's 2025 earnings is $3.46 per share, reflecting an upward revision of 8.46% over the past 30 days, with a projected year-over-year increase of 16.98% [7]. - Revenue estimates are pegged at $1.15 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 2.41% [7]. - Criteo has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 45.42% [8]. Investment Potential - Criteo's focus on high-growth areas and its recent expansion of the advertiser base by 11% year-over-year suggest strong market traction [9]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and a Growth Score of A, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [10].