Gilead Sciences vs GSK: Which HIV Drugmaker is a Smarter Buy Now?

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences and GSK are leading companies in the HIV treatment market, each with strong portfolios and growth prospects, making it challenging to choose between them [3][25]. Gilead Sciences (GILD) - Gilead is a dominant player in the HIV market, with HIV drug sales accounting for 69% of total product sales in Q1 2025 [1]. - The flagship drug Biktarvy holds over 51% market share in the U.S. treatment market for HIV-1 infection [4]. - Descovy, for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), maintains over 40% market share in the U.S. [5]. - Gilead's innovation efforts include the late-stage studies for lenacapavir, which has received FDA priority review for HIV prevention, with a target action date of June 19, 2025 [5][6]. - Gilead's oncology portfolio includes the breast cancer drug Trodelvy and the Cell Therapy franchise, which is facing competitive pressures [7]. - The liver disease portfolio has been strengthened by the recent FDA approval of seladelpar for primary biliary cholangitis [8]. - As of March 31, 2025, Gilead's total debt-to-total-capital ratio was 56.7%, with $7.9 billion in cash and $22.1 billion in long-term debt [9]. GSK - GSK's HIV portfolio is driven by strong demand for Cabenuva, Apretude, and Dovato, with Dovato being the largest product in the HIV portfolio [10][11]. - GSK is developing three new integrase inhibitors (INSTIs) and has five planned launches, which are expected to drive future performance [12]. - Key drugs like Nucala and new oncology drugs Jemperli and Ojjaara are contributing to GSK's growth [13]. - GSK's recent approvals include vaccines and treatments for various conditions, although challenges in China and potential changes in U.S. vaccination policies may impact vaccine sales [14]. - As of March 31, 2025, GSK's net debt was $23.2 billion, with a debt/capital ratio of 57.4% [15]. Financial Estimates and Performance - GILD's 2025 sales are estimated to decrease by 0.84%, while EPS is expected to improve by 71.21% [16]. - GSK's 2025 sales are projected to increase by 6.2%, with EPS also expected to rise by 6.17% [18]. - GILD's shares have gained 15.7% this year, outperforming GSK's 14.7% increase, while the industry has declined by 6.2% [21]. - GILD trades at 13.11X forward earnings, while GSK trades at 8.44X [22]. - GSK offers a higher dividend yield of 4.48% compared to GILD's 3.08% [24]. Investment Outlook - Gilead's innovation in the HIV portfolio and potential approval of lenacapavir are strong growth catalysts [25]. - However, GILD's revenue may face pressure from new Medicare Part D models and challenges in the oncology sector [26]. - GSK's strong position in the HIV market, successful new launches, and promising pipeline candidates suggest it may be a better investment choice at current valuations [27][28].