现货市场掀抢运潮 集运指数（欧线）期货探底回升

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping index (European line) futures have rebounded significantly since May, with the main contract price increasing by over 68% from the low point at the end of April, indicating a shift from previous downward trends [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rebound in the container shipping index is driven by improved macroeconomic expectations, a recovery in import and export trade volumes on the US line, and the onset of the peak shipping season for container shipments on European and American routes [2][3]. - The North American market accounts for approximately 16% of global container shipping trade volume, with a significant portion of imports coming from Asia and Europe, highlighting the importance of international trade dynamics on the shipping market [3]. - Recent announcements from shipping companies to raise freight rates on the US line have positively impacted the European line freight rates, contributing to market optimism [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The shipping market is experiencing improvements on both the supply and demand sides, with a potential recovery in shipping volumes on the US line and a reallocation of shipping capacity easing pressure on the European line [6]. - There is an increase in demand driven by the release of previously suppressed orders and a surge in supply chain replenishment needs in the US, which is expected to boost shipping volumes [6]. - The traditional seasonal patterns indicate that European industrial goods replenishment typically occurs from May to June, while retail replenishment peaks from July to August, suggesting a potential increase in shipping activity [6]. Group 3: Price Stability and Future Expectations - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about the sustainability of the rebound in the container shipping index, as previous price hikes have failed to hold [7]. - The success of shipping companies' pricing strategies during the peak season will be crucial for future freight rates, with ongoing uncertainties in international trade posing risks to the market [7][8]. - Analysts expect that the spot freight rates will stabilize and rise starting in June, but caution against overestimating future prices due to the current oversupply of capacity on the European line [8].