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【环时深度】应对美关税重压,印度有多少筹码?
Huan Qiu Shi Bao·2025-05-20 22:49

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between India and the United States are critical, particularly regarding tariffs, with significant implications for India's economy and export sectors [1][2]. Trade Impact - India's exports to the U.S. are projected to decrease by $5.76 billion due to U.S. tariffs, with the electronics, seafood, and jewelry sectors being the most affected [2][3]. - The U.S. is India's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 18% of India's total exports, with a trade surplus of $45.7 billion [2]. - The electronics sector represents about 14% of India's exports to the U.S., while jewelry accounts for 30% of U.S. imports from India [2]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The seafood industry is expected to see a 20.2% decline in exports, translating to approximately $404 million, if subjected to U.S. tariffs [3]. - The automotive parts sector may experience a 12.1% drop in exports, equating to about $339.4 million [3]. - The jewelry and diamond sectors could face a 15.3% reduction in exports, amounting to around $1.82 billion [3]. Economic Considerations - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points [4]. - If the U.S. imposes "reciprocal tariffs," India's exports to the U.S. could decrease by $30 to $33 billion, representing 0.8% to 0.9% of India's GDP [4]. Negotiation Dynamics - India has proposed a phased approach to trade negotiations with the U.S., aiming for a temporary agreement by July, followed by further agreements later in the year [11][12]. - India's consumer-driven economy provides it with a negotiating advantage compared to other export-reliant Asian economies [6]. Strategic Responses - India is exploring regional cooperation with the EU, UK, and ASEAN to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and enhance its economic autonomy [6][7]. - The country has made concessions, such as reducing tariffs on U.S. whiskey and committing to import U.S. energy worth $25 billion [5]. Historical Context - India's trade policies have historically included high tariffs and protectionist measures, which have evolved since the 1991 economic crisis that led to liberalization [8][9]. - The current situation may trigger a resurgence of protectionist sentiments within India, as domestic calls for increased trade barriers grow [9].