【财经分析】财政收支延续改善趋势 4月税收收入增速进一步修复

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months of 2025 show a mixed trend, with total public budget revenue at 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while total expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1][4] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for the first four months was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 7.7% to 15,060 billion yuan [2] - Central government budget revenue was 33,928 billion yuan, a decline of 3.8%, while local government revenue rose by 2.2% to 46,688 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue for the first four months was 36.7%, higher than the same period in 2024 and in line with the five-year average [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and consumption tax both grew by 1.8%, while corporate income tax fell by 3.1% and personal income tax rose by 7.4% [2][3] - Real estate-related taxes showed mixed results, with deed tax down 15.7% and property tax up 11.2% [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the first four months was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 12,282 billion yuan (up 9%) and local government expenditure at 81,299 billion yuan (up 3.9%) [4] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%), while spending on urban and rural communities and agriculture showed a decline [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at around 4%, allowing for flexibility in future policy adjustments [3] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure spending, with a significant amount of local special bonds pending issuance [5]