食品饮料板块内部行业分化，啤酒或进入旺季上行通道

Group 1 - The beer industry is undergoing a deep adjustment cycle in 2024, facing continuous demand contraction pressure in the first three quarters, exacerbated by extreme weather disturbances and channel deleveraging, leading to a "demand-inventory-funding" triple pressure [1] - A turning point is expected to begin in late Q3 2024, with policy shifts and improved consumer income expectations stabilizing the restaurant channel's closure rate [1] - Leading companies are successfully building new growth drivers through balance sheet repair and proactive operational strategy adjustments, including accelerated transformation towards non-on-premise channels and deepening digital retail layouts [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the beer sector's revenue reached 20.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.53 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in both volume and price [1] - Short-term expectations indicate a rebound in beer sales due to the upcoming consumption peak and macro policy improvements, with channel replenishment and on-premise recovery creating a synergistic effect [2] - Long-term, ongoing consumption stimulus policies, such as restaurant consumption vouchers, are anticipated to directly benefit beer consumption, while the high-end market still holds significant potential for price upgrades [2]