智通财经网·2025-05-21 02:51Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the importance of the current housing sales model in the real estate sector, predicting that various regions will gradually implement pilot policies and supporting measures for current housing sales, which can help stabilize housing prices and mitigate delivery risks [1] Group 1: Institutional Changes - The evolution of China's housing system has transitioned through three stages: "welfare housing - pre-sale of commercial housing - pilot current housing sales." The pre-sale system has effectively addressed housing shortages and financing challenges, supporting long-term rapid development of the real estate industry [1] - The shift in policy focus towards "ensuring delivery and preventing risks" has led to the gradual promotion of the current housing sales system, with 6 provinces and 32 cities already issuing relevant details since 2024 [1] Group 2: Current Status - Since 2021, the proportion of current housing sales in the total sales area of commercial residential properties has been on the rise, reaching 32.7% in Q1 2025, an increase of 22.5 percentage points from the low point in 2020 [3] - Several regions have introduced measures to support current housing sales, including financing support, tax reductions, and simplified approval processes, with expectations for further measures to encourage current housing sales [3] Group 3: Impact of Current Housing Sales - Current housing sales are expected to delay the conversion of land to housing, reducing new supply and stabilizing housing prices, particularly in lower-tier cities with longer inventory digestion periods [4] - The current housing sales model may lead to a decrease in land auction enthusiasm and a decline in land prices, prompting developers to consider thicker safety margins when acquiring land [4] - The model requires higher product quality, operational efficiency, and financing capabilities from developers, potentially accelerating industry consolidation [4]