Loongson Technology(688047) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-21 05:21Core Viewpoint - The financial data and capital market trends are revealing the vulnerabilities of Longxin Zhongke, despite its narrative of "self-controllable" domestic chips, leading to a collective retreat of institutional investors [1][9]. Shareholder Reduction - Longxin Zhongke announced a shareholder reduction plan on May 9, with the third, fourth, fifth, and tenth largest shareholders planning to reduce their stakes, totaling approximately 3% of the company's total share capital [1][2]. - Seven out of the top ten shareholders have reduced their holdings, with specific plans to sell up to 3.88 million shares (0.97%), 3.58 million shares (0.89%), and 2.50 million shares (0.62%) among others [2]. Stock Performance - Following the reduction announcement, Longxin Zhongke's stock price dropped significantly, with the five-day average falling to 122.14 yuan [5]. - In the five trading days after the announcement, there was a substantial outflow of main funds totaling 98.17 million yuan [5]. Financial Performance - Longxin Zhongke reported a net loss of 625 million yuan for the full year of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 89.8%, and a first-quarter loss of 151 million yuan in 2025, worsening by 102.2% [9][12]. - The company has experienced negative operating cash flow for three consecutive years, with a net outflow of 335 million yuan in 2024 and further deterioration to -144 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [13][17]. Research and Development - The R&D expense ratio for Longxin Zhongke reached 105.3% in 2024, but the capitalization rate was only 19%, indicating ineffective output from the 980 million yuan R&D investment [12][13]. - The company faces significant inventory depreciation, with an inventory turnover period of 974 days, far exceeding the industry average of 300 days, leading to asset impairment losses of 249 million yuan [12]. Market Position and Challenges - Longxin Zhongke's revenue heavily relies on government procurement, which accounted for 53% of its income in 2024, but the collection period exceeds 270 days, resulting in a low accounts receivable turnover rate of 0.25 times [20]. - The company struggles with commercializing its technology, as its self-developed instruction set remains isolated, and the software ecosystem is underdeveloped, with only a few thousand compatible applications [19][20]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market valuation of 492 billion yuan is inflated by 88% due to the "self-controllable" theme, with the actual hardware business valued at only 5.62 billion yuan [9]. - If the expected government procurement does not materialize in 2025, the price-to-sales ratio may need to be halved to below 50 times to align with the fundamentals, indicating a potential valuation bubble [9][20].