中加基金权益周报︱中美贸易关系缓和，债市关注风险偏好及资金面变化

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 590.5 billion, 197.3 billion, and 151.8 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 501.2 billion, 171.1 billion, and 35.7 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 122.2 billion, with a net financing amount of -11.2 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates rose last week, influenced by factors such as the Sino-US Geneva joint statement, fluctuations in funding rates, the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and April credit data [2] Liquidity Tracking - Liquidity conditions shifted from loose to tight last week, as the demand for funds from reverse repos, MLF maturities, and government bond payments partially offset the increase in supply from the reserve requirement ratio cuts, leading to a marginal tightening in the latter half of the week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Sino-US Geneva joint statement canceled 91% of countervailing tariffs and exempted 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [4] - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, and total social financing reached 1.2 trillion [4] Overseas Market - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating; however, the Sino-US negotiations boosted risk appetite, resulting in a 5.3% increase in the S&P 500 for the week and a 6 basis points rise in 10-year US Treasury yields [5] Equity Market - A-shares were positively impacted by the unexpected results of Sino-US negotiations, with major indices experiencing fluctuations; the total A-share index rose by 0.72%, the CSI 300 by 1.12%, and the ChiNext by 1.38%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board fell by 1.10% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.27 trillion, down by 87.158 billion week-on-week [6] - As of May 15, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares was 1.796728 trillion, slightly reduced by 410 million from May 8 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The 90-day tariff exemption period between China and the US is expected to stimulate exports, reducing the risk of economic slowdown in the short term, which is the macro backdrop for the recent marginal tightening of liquidity [7] - Despite insufficient credit demand, weak real estate sales, and persistently low prices, there is no basis for significant tightening of funds [7] - Future broad interest rates, including deposit and loan rates, are expected to follow policy rate cuts, and the urgency for counter-cyclical policies is reduced due to the export stimulus [7] - The bond market may provide good entry opportunities if it overprices the temporary tightening due to tax periods and payments [7] - In the convertible bond market, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase, with recent valuations slightly compressed, but still supported by supply-demand dynamics [7]