威胁不让"一滴水"流向巴基斯坦，印度河水资源分配会成印巴新“爆点”吗？

Core Points - The ongoing dispute over the Indus River water resources between India and Pakistan remains unresolved despite a ceasefire agreement reached on May 10, 2023, following a shooting incident in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, 2023 [1][3] - India unilaterally suspended the Indus Water Treaty, which has been in effect for over 60 years, raising concerns about potential escalation in tensions between the two countries [1][4] - Pakistan's government has declared India's suspension of the treaty as invalid and emphasized that water resource issues could threaten the fragile ceasefire [3][6] Water Resource Dispute - The Indus River water dispute originated from the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, leading to challenges in water resource allocation [4][5] - The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960, allocated water rights to both countries, with India having unrestricted use of three eastern tributaries and Pakistan receiving rights to the western rivers [4][5] - Historically, the treaty has been viewed as a critical safeguard in India-Pakistan relations, remaining intact even during multiple wars [5] Recent Developments - Following the treaty suspension, Indian officials have made statements indicating a commitment to prevent any water from flowing to Pakistan, prompting strong reactions from Pakistani leaders [3][6] - Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister has warned that unresolved water issues could be perceived as acts of war, highlighting the critical nature of water resources for Pakistan's national interests [3][6] - India has taken actions such as releasing water from dams and closing gates on rivers, which Pakistan has labeled as "water terrorism" [3][6] Importance of Indus River - The Indus River system is vital for Pakistan, with approximately 70% of its territory located in the Indus River basin, making it crucial for agriculture and water supply [6] - Disruption of water supply from the Indus River could have catastrophic effects on Pakistan's food production and economic stability, particularly affecting key agricultural provinces [6] - Experts suggest that India lacks the infrastructure to completely stop the flow of the Indus River, and any attempts to do so would be costly and politically unpopular [6]