税改VS关税：特朗普政策“左右互搏”

Group 1 - The core narrative revolves around the contrasting impacts of tax reform and tariffs on the U.S. economy, with tax cuts expected to stimulate growth while tariffs may hinder consumer purchasing power and economic expansion [1][4][5] - Economists are skeptical about the effectiveness of tariffs in boosting domestic manufacturing and employment, with many predicting that the negative impact of tariffs will outweigh the positive effects of tax reforms [1][6] - The average tariff rate has increased significantly from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to approximately 15%, which is estimated to act as a tax increase equivalent to 1% to 1.5% of GDP [6][7] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary projected a growth rate close to 3% within a year, while independent analyses suggest a much lower impact from tax cuts on GDP growth [5][6] - Consumer confidence has dropped to the second-lowest level on record, and inflation expectations have reached multi-decade highs, indicating potential economic strain [6] - The tax savings from reforms may be offset by rising prices due to tariffs, particularly affecting low-income households [7]