Ford's EV Retrenchment Deepens: Buy F Stock or Stay Away?

Core Viewpoint - Ford is scaling back its electric vehicle ambitions by allowing Nissan to use part of its underutilized battery plant, highlighting the pressures faced by automakers in the current EV market [1][4]. Group 1: Ford's Strategic Moves - Ford will permit Nissan to utilize part of its Kentucky battery facility, which was part of a $7 billion investment in EVs made in 2021 [1]. - This partnership aims to absorb excess capacity, as Nissan recently reported a $4.5 billion loss and canceled plans for a battery plant in Japan [2]. - Ford has suspended its full-year 2025 guidance due to uncertainties related to tariffs, having incurred a $5.07 billion EV loss in 2024, with expectations of at least another $5 billion loss this year [4][5]. Group 2: Challenges Facing Ford - The impact of Trump tariffs is projected to cost Ford $2.5 billion, with plans to offset $1 billion through efficiency measures, leaving a $1.5 billion hit in 2025 [5]. - The traditional Ford Blue division is experiencing lower sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, which is expected to compress profits further [6]. - Heavy investments in green mobility and autonomous technology are straining Ford's short-term financial flexibility, leading to cash flow pressures [7]. Group 3: Positive Aspects of Ford's Position - Ford Pro division is showing robust demand, particularly for its Super Duty truck, which could serve as a significant growth engine [8]. - The company has a strong liquidity position, exiting the first quarter of 2025 with $27 billion in cash and $45 billion in total liquidity [9]. - Ford's dividend yield exceeds 5%, appealing to income-focused investors, with a commitment to return 40-50% of free cash flow to shareholders [10]. Group 4: Market Performance and Valuation - Ford shares have declined approximately 11% over the past year, contrasting with a 29% gain in the industry [13]. - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.27, below both the industry average and its own 5-year average [14]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's 2025 earnings indicates a 38% year-over-year drop, reflecting revised EPS estimates over the past 60 days [16].