Core Viewpoint - Canada Goose's stock price surged by 30% following its FQ4 report, driven by brand loyalty and high short interest, although the short interest has decreased since the report [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Canada Goose's Q4 revenue grew by 7.4% year-over-year, with a 15.7% increase in direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales, while wholesale sales declined by 23.2% [4] - DTC sales increased by 11.6% on an FX-neutral basis, supported by a 6.8% rise in comparable sales and an increased store count [5] - The company improved its gross margin by 620 basis points, with operating income more than doubling and net income growing by over 400% [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high short interest at the beginning of May was above 20%, contributing to the stock's price spike [1] - Analysts predict that short sellers may reposition at higher levels following the Q4 release, despite concerns about future profitability due to tariff impacts [2][7] - Institutions own about 85% of Canada Goose stock, but their trading activity has been limited, influencing the stock's price action [8][9] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - The consensus among analysts is a "Reduce" rating with a 12-month price target of $9.50, indicating a potential downside of 14.99% from the current price [8][10] - Analysts have reduced coverage and ratings for Canada Goose, favoring retailers with better cash flow and capital returns [11][14] - The stock's recent price surge may have already peaked, facing resistance at around $11.80, with limited upside potential [12][13]
Canada Goose Soars 30%—Is This Rally Built to Last?