债市风暴席卷全球 美日英长债收益率同步飙升

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly alert to fiscal deficits, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields globally [1] - Concerns over government financing needs exceeding investor demand are driving the upward trend in bond yields [1] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen significantly, influenced by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating [1][4] Group 1: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield increased over 12 basis points to 5.089%, marking a new high since October 2023 [4] - The U.S. Congress is reviewing budget legislation that includes spending cuts and tax increases, focusing on the federal government's substantial deficit [1] - The market is reassessing tolerance for fiscal easing across countries, with the bond market now dictating the pace [1][4] Group 2: Global Bond Market Trends - Japan's bond market is experiencing a "market uprising," with the worst performance in 20 years for a recent bond auction [7] - Japan faces dual pressures of economic contraction and high debt levels, shifting the focus of debt crisis concerns from the U.S. to Japan [7] - The U.K. is still recovering from the turmoil caused by the "mini-budget" proposed by former Prime Minister Truss, which led to increased risk premiums [9] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider the exchange rate risks when diversifying globally, with suggestions to use actively managed bond funds [10] - The Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF includes some overseas bond assets, while the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF offers passive exposure to hedged investment-grade bonds [10] - Year-to-date returns show the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF at 0.4%, compared to 1.2% for its U.S. counterpart [10]