市场遭遇三方合围 PTA价格或持续低谷徘徊

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is facing significant challenges due to ongoing trade wars and uncertainty in trade policies, leading to a drop in prices to near four-year lows. The high cost of raw material PX is expected to erode profits, and the overcapacity in the industry, combined with weak downstream demand, suggests that PTA prices may remain low for the foreseeable future [1]. Group 1: Market Supply and Capacity - China's PTA industry has seen significant capacity expansion, becoming the world's largest PTA producer with a total capacity of 86.2 million tons as of March [2]. - The rapid rise of private enterprises in the PTA sector has intensified industry transformation, leading to a more integrated competitive landscape where major suppliers have established a "PX-PTA-Polyester" supply chain [2]. - Despite the gradual increase in domestic PTA demand due to downstream polyester projects, the growth rate of PTA capacity is outpacing that of polyester, resulting in a buyer-dominated market [2]. Group 2: Raw Material Prices - The PX market has experienced a slowdown in capacity expansion after a rapid release phase, with domestic PX capacity expected to remain at 43.48 million tons in 2024, with no new projects planned for that year [3]. - The supply of PX is expected to remain tight, making it difficult for prices to decrease, which will further squeeze the profit margins of downstream products like PTA [4]. Group 3: Demand Challenges - The polyester industry, a key downstream consumer of PTA, holds 70% of global capacity, but the growth rate of new polyester capacity is slowing, leading to an oversupply crisis [5]. - The uncertainty in the international trade environment has negatively impacted overseas orders, particularly affecting exports to the U.S. and Europe, which is significant for the home textile industry [5]. - Many weaving enterprises are currently facing a dilemma of "high costs and low demand," leading some smaller companies to implement production cuts to maintain prices [5][6].