欧盟新预算改革面临多重制约

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed an ambitious budget reform plan aimed at promoting fiscal integration within the EU, enhancing strategic autonomy, and creating a more flexible and efficient fiscal mechanism to address global geopolitical risks and high-tech competition [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Reform - The geopolitical crisis, particularly following the Ukraine conflict, has exposed the limitations of the EU in security and diplomacy, prompting a reevaluation of "strategic autonomy" [2]. - The EU is falling behind in key areas such as digitalization, artificial intelligence, and green energy, necessitating a more robust fiscal stimulus to invest in future industries [2]. - There is a lack of sufficient fiscal tools and limited financing options, as demonstrated by the successful introduction of a joint borrowing plan during the pandemic, which the Commission aims to institutionalize [2][3]. Group 2: Key Components of the Reform - Defense spending exemption: The proposal suggests exempting defense expenditures from the fiscal deficit calculations, allowing member states to significantly increase their defense budgets [3]. - Establishment of a European Competitiveness Fund: This fund aims to consolidate existing research and industry support tools to invest in strategic projects like chip manufacturing and clean energy [3]. - Reform of budget allocation methods: The plan proposes reducing traditional agricultural subsidies and structural funds, shifting to conditional direct payments to member states based on their performance in climate transition and fiscal reforms [3]. - Institutionalization of a joint borrowing mechanism: The proposal seeks to create a permanent EU joint debt issuance mechanism to ensure long-term strategic investment and crisis response capabilities [3]. Group 3: Internal Divisions and Challenges - There are significant divisions within the EU regarding the reform, with countries like France and Italy supporting it for strategic autonomy, while others, particularly the "frugal four" (Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, and Austria), oppose expanded borrowing [4][5]. - Some Eastern European countries, while potentially benefiting from EU funds, resist conditional funding that may infringe on national sovereignty [5]. - The political landscape suggests that while the reform is likely to pass, it will require extensive negotiations and compromises, indicating a shift in the EU's institutional development and its future direction [5].