PTA：油价上涨乏力且下游存减产预期 PTA反弹承压

Market Overview - On May 21, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a stable basis for spot prices. The trading range for May cargo was between 4855 and 4935, with some transactions slightly higher, while June cargo was traded at a basis of 120-140 [1][4]. Cost Analysis - As of May 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 355 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 356 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates increased to 76.9%, up by 4.4% from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The comprehensive operating rate for polyester rose to 95%, an increase of 0.8%. Despite forecasts of production cuts due to high raw material prices, the demand for polyester remains relatively stable, with low inventory levels in the polyester factories. The price of polyester yarn has shown mixed trends, but overall sales remain weak [3]. Market Outlook - In late May, PTA facilities are expected to restart, but future maintenance plans remain unclear. With rising raw material prices and increasing losses in downstream polyester products, there is a tendency for production cuts among some polyester factories. This has led to a weakening expectation in the supply-demand balance for PTA, resulting in a noticeable decline in basis this week. However, following the maintenance of a PTA facility in East China, the basis has stabilized somewhat. Short-term oil price increases are limited, and the intention for production cuts in downstream polyester factories puts pressure on PTA prices. The strategy suggests limited downside potential for TA as long as the supply-demand tightness persists and oil prices do not fall significantly, with a focus on support around 4600 [4].