Economic Performance - In April, China's tax revenue growth turned positive for the first time this year, increasing by approximately 1.9% year-on-year, which helped narrow the decline in general public budget revenue to -0.4% for the first four months of the year [1][3] - Despite a 21% decline in exports to the US, exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2] Fiscal Policy - The general public budget expenditure for January to April reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7% [6] - The government is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing fiscal policies, including the issuance of government bonds, to support economic stability [9][12] Real Estate Market - The land transfer income showed a significant recovery in April, with a year-on-year decline of only 11.4%, indicating a potential rebound in the real estate market [6][7] - The current real estate market is undergoing structural changes, with core cities experiencing a faster recovery, which may support future demand [7] Trade Relations - The US-China trade negotiations are set to take place within 90 days, which may lead to a significant reduction in tariffs, potentially stabilizing economic growth in the short term [8][9] - The ongoing tariff situation remains a concern, with tariffs on Chinese goods still exceeding 40%, necessitating careful monitoring of trade policies [10] Future Outlook - The economic growth for the second quarter is projected to be close to 5%, with the potential for fiscal stimulus measures to be adjusted based on trade negotiations [9][12] - The government is focusing on maintaining social stability and expanding domestic demand through targeted fiscal measures [10][12]
专家详解关税战下的财政数据,短期财政增量政策出台可能性小
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-05-22 02:22