“债券义勇军”回归！特朗普减税冲击长期美债，收益率逼近20年高点

Core Viewpoint - Investors are resisting President Trump's tax cut plan, leading to a rise in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.1%, close to a 20-year high, which has negatively impacted U.S. stock markets and the dollar [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, nearing the peak levels of 2023 [2] - There has been a significant sell-off in the bond market, reflecting investor disappointment with the U.S. government's increasing debt [4] - Demand for the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction was unexpectedly low, indicating further deterioration in investor confidence [1][4] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The tax plan is expected to add trillions to an already inflated budget deficit, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1][6] - The U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of the economy, with interest payments projected to reach $880 billion in 2024, exceeding defense spending [6] - The total outstanding U.S. debt has surged from under $14 trillion in 2016 to nearly $30 trillion, driven by tax cuts and pandemic-related borrowing [6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The bond market is signaling policymakers to address fiscal sustainability issues, which are now affecting risk sentiment in equity and credit markets [4] - The phenomenon of "bond vigilantes" is re-emerging, where investors sell government bonds to pressure the government into reducing spending [4][5] - Investors are currently demanding higher returns for long-term bonds, not just in the U.S. but also in Japan and the UK [4]