超长期日债收益率飙升 日本央行暂无入市干预打算

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields reflects structural demand deficiencies in the private sector, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) currently not viewing the situation as requiring intervention [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached 1.55%, the highest level since March 28, indicating a significant increase in yields due to deteriorating supply-demand balance [1]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs attribute the yield spike to changes in demand from life insurance companies and a narrowing duration gap, suggesting that this imbalance is unlikely to resolve in the short term [1][2]. - The BOJ's committee member, Noguchi Akihiro, stated that the recent rise in long-term bond yields may be driven by global yield trends and does not warrant immediate intervention [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Considerations - The BOJ is currently assessing the impact of each interest rate hike on the economy and is cautious about potential risks before considering the next rate increase [2][3]. - Noguchi indicated that the recent rise in long-term rates is not expected to directly affect the new bond reduction plan to be decided in June, emphasizing the importance of avoiding market disruption [2]. - The focus of the bond reduction plan should be on providing market predictability while maintaining flexibility, allowing the BOJ sufficient time to reduce its balance sheet for market stability [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The economic outlook remains uncertain, and the BOJ should refrain from adjusting interest rates for now, closely monitoring economic developments [3]. - Despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, the market is gradually stabilizing, and the impact on the Japanese economy is still under observation [3]. - The BOJ must act cautiously when considering rate hikes to ensure that core inflation remains stable around its 2% target, supported by sustained wage growth [3].