金十整理：日本超长期国债收益率飙升破顶，当局可能如何应对？

Group 1 - The rise in ultra-long-term government bond yields in Japan is attributed to a decline in demand from domestic long-term investors such as life insurance companies and pension funds, coupled with a slowdown in the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing pace, leading to a lack of buyers in the ultra-long-term bond market [1] - Foreign investors are entering a market with poor liquidity, causing more severe market volatility compared to previous periods [1] - Political pressure on Prime Minister Kishida to increase spending and reduce taxes ahead of the July Senate elections has led investors to demand a higher risk premium due to Japan's fiscal challenges [1] Group 2 - The increase in ultra-long-term yields has limited impact on mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, as most loans in Japan are based on short-term rates; however, an overall upward shift in the yield curve could increase borrowing costs and harm the economy [2] - Rising yields will increase the financing costs of Japan's massive public debt and restrict future fiscal spending [2] - Market dysfunction complicates the Bank of Japan's plans to reduce its balance sheet, and delays in quantitative tightening may limit the central bank's policy space to respond to the next economic downturn [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to take immediate action unless there is a panic sell-off in the entire bond market, as its focus has shifted to restoring market functionality after last year's removal of the zero interest rate cap [3] - In the upcoming mid-term review, the Bank of Japan may maintain its current bond purchase reduction plan until March next year, although there is room for intervention in cases of extreme market tension, the threshold for such intervention is high [3] - The Bank of Japan may adjust its regular market operations, such as changing the composition of bond purchases, and could maintain or slow down the balance sheet reduction pace in plans beyond fiscal year 2026 to avoid disrupting the market [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance has remained silent so far, but it may reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds after meetings with investors in mid-June; another option could be early redemption of outstanding ultra-long-term bonds, though this is currently unlikely [3] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan states that monetary policy is determined by controlling short-term rates rather than bond yields, and committee member Akira Noguchi opposes hasty intervention, indicating that fluctuations in yields will not directly affect the pace of interest rate hikes; however, if soaring yields damage market and corporate confidence, the central bank may be forced to pause rate increases [4]