债券拍卖遇冷，日本国债大跌，石破茂：日本财政状况比希腊还差

Core Viewpoint - The structural risks of Japan's ultra-long-term government bonds are rising as yields continue to increase, with the 40-year yield reaching its highest level since issuance in 2007, indicating potential challenges for Japan's fiscal sustainability and global market stability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Japan's long-term bond yields are on the rise, with the 40-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 3.675%, the highest since 2007 [1]. - The 10-year and 5-year government bond yields have also risen, reaching 1.56% and 1.02% respectively [1]. - The recent auction of 20-year bonds saw the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since 2012, dropping to 2.5 times, indicating weak market demand [2][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Challenges - The Bank of Japan holds 52% of the Japanese government bond market, acting as a stabilizer but facing a dilemma between continuing quantitative tightening (QT) and the risk of market volatility [5]. - If QT continues, long-term bond yields may rise further, leading to significant losses for bondholders and potentially forcing the Bank of Japan to reintroduce yield curve control (YCC) or negative interest rates [5]. - Conversely, if the Bank of Japan opts for quantitative easing (QE), it may alleviate market volatility but exacerbate inflationary pressures and lead to a depreciation of the yen [5]. Group 3: Economic Sentiment - A recent survey indicated that 65% of Japanese companies are calling for the Bank of Japan to pause its interest rate hike plans, reflecting concerns over economic contraction and uncertainty from external factors [6]. - The total national debt of Japan is projected to reach 1,323.7155 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2024, marking a continuous increase and raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [7]. - The Japanese government is facing a fiscal dilemma, with rising expenditures due to inflation not being fully covered by tax revenues, leading to a precarious financial situation [8].