里昂证券：美股对贸易战风险“极度自负” 盈利预期恐难兑现

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that U.S. stock investors are exhibiting "extreme complacency" regarding the impact of the trade war on corporate earnings, suggesting that current market expectations may be overly optimistic [1] Economic Indicators - Corporate capital expenditure willingness has shown negative growth for the fourth time this century [1] - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has reached a multi-decade low [1] - Two-thirds of American households anticipate an increase in unemployment over the next year [1] Market Sentiment - The article emphasizes that the confidence of businesses and households has been significantly impacted during the tariff period, making it difficult for market sentiment to return to levels seen in December of the previous year [1] - Current market expectations project earnings growth of 10% and 14% for the S&P 500 index over the next two years, which is substantially higher than the historical compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.7% over the past 40 to 50 years, indicating a clear overvaluation [1] Analyst Behavior - Sell-side institutions are reluctant to highlight these risks due to reputational damage from previous inaccurate recession forecasts for 2022-2023, leading to a hesitance to speak against prevailing market trends [1]