ARCC vs. HTGC: Which BDC Has More Upside Amid Market Uncertainty?

Group 1: Overview of Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) - Ares Capital focuses on middle-market firms across various industries, providing debt financing ranging from $30 million to $500 million [6][9] - As of March 31, 2025, ARCC had a diversified investment portfolio of $27.1 billion across 566 portfolio companies, with significant investments in software & services (24%) and healthcare equipment & services (13%) [9][12] - In Q1 2025, ARCC reported a 4.4% year-over-year growth in total investment income, driven by increased interest income, but faced lower portfolio exits and gross commitments [7][12] Group 2: Overview of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) - Hercules Capital specializes in venture debt, targeting high-growth technology and life sciences sectors, with investments generally ranging from $15 million to $40 million [15][20] - As of March 31, 2025, HTGC had an investment portfolio of $3.9 billion, with 32% in software companies and 29% in drug discovery & development [20][23] - In Q1 2025, HTGC experienced a 2% decline in total investment income but recorded a rise in gross new debt and equity commitments [16][23] Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth Outlook - Ares Capital's total investment income has seen a CAGR of 14.4% over the last five years, with significant gross investment commitments in recent years [8][12] - Hercules Capital's total investment income has a CAGR of 12.1% over the last decade, with increasing demand for customized financing expected to drive future growth [16][17] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates downward for ARCC, indicating a 12% decline for 2025, while HTGC's earnings are expected to decline by 4% in 2025 but grow by 5.9% in 2026 [26][38] Group 4: Valuation and Comparison - Ares Capital is currently trading at a forward P/E of 10.54X, higher than its five-year median of 9.36X, while Hercules Capital trades at a forward P/E of 8.83X, lower than its five-year median of 9.39X [30][33] - Hercules Capital has a return on equity (ROE) of 16.84%, significantly higher than ARCC's 11.05% and the industry average of 11.20% [33][37] - HTGC's dividend yield of 9.23% is slightly higher than ARCC's 8.92%, although both are below the industry average of 10.27% [35][37]