4月稀释沥青进口量创近年新低 预计“低进口”或成年内常态

Core Viewpoint - The import volume of diluted asphalt in China reached a new low in April 2025, primarily due to trade tensions and reduced profitability in processing diluted asphalt, indicating that "low imports" may become the norm for the remainder of 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Import Data - In April 2025, China's diluted asphalt import volume was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 97.58% month-on-month and 97.65% year-on-year, marking the lowest monthly import level since February 2019 [1]. - The total import volume from January to April 2025 was 1.29 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 37.18%, also the lowest for the same period since 2021 [1]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Sanctions - U.S. sanctions have significantly contributed to the record low import levels of diluted asphalt, with President Trump announcing the termination of oil trading agreements with Venezuela on February 26, 2025, and requiring Chevron to exit Venezuelan oil operations by April 3, 2025 [3]. - The sanctions have led to a reduction in U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil and have limited the import enthusiasm of other countries [3]. - Contrary to market expectations, the anticipated increase in China's diluted asphalt imports following the sanctions has not materialized, as evidenced by the low import figures in April [3]. Group 3: Processing Profitability - The current tax policy on processing diluted asphalt, which allows deductions based only on the proportion of taxable products, has significantly reduced the profitability of processing diluted asphalt, leading to a decline in domestic refineries' willingness to process it [5]. - The production of asphalt using crude oil quotas is becoming the primary method in 2025, as the profitability of processing diluted asphalt has not improved compared to processing crude oil [5]. - To achieve profitability in processing diluted asphalt, the price spread would need to decrease by approximately $10 per barrel, which is unlikely to happen without affecting the high cracking margins of diluted asphalt [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the combined internal and external factors, it is expected that the import volume of diluted asphalt will remain low and may become a norm for the remainder of 2025 [6].