溜溜果园冲刺港股IPO：明星光环下的盈利挑战与资本对赌

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan Group is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, facing challenges such as declining product prices and significant financial obligations due to investor exit [1][9][11] Financial Performance - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to grow from 1.174 billion to 1.616 billion yuan, with net profit increasing from 68 million to 148 million yuan [2] - The company holds a 7% market share in China's plum product industry, ranking first by retail sales [1] Business Model and Market Dynamics - The shift from a distribution model to a bulk snack model has led to 28.8% of sales coming from major chain snack stores in 2024 [4] - The company’s main products, dried plums and plum jelly, have seen price declines despite increased sales volume [5][7] Pricing and Cost Challenges - The average selling price of plum jelly dropped from 25.8 yuan/kg in 2023 to 18.6 yuan/kg in 2024, while the average price of dried plums fell from 39.4 yuan/kg in 2022 to 35.2 yuan/kg in 2024 [5][7] - Raw material costs have increased, with prices for green plums rising by 8.33% and imported plums by 27.78% from 2020 to 2024 [7] Profitability Concerns - The gross margin for dried plums decreased from 39.6% in 2022 to 32.1% in 2024, while the overall gross margin fell from 40.1% in 2023 to 36.0% in 2024 [7] Capital and Investment Issues - Beijing Sequoia, an early investor, exited in 2024, imposing a significant financial burden on the company, including 126 million yuan in interest payments [1][11] - The company must complete its IPO by December 31, 2025, or face potential buyback demands from new investors [11][12] Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of February 2025, the company had only 51.04 million yuan in cash, with interest-bearing bank loans totaling 310 million yuan, indicating a severe cash flow issue [12]