超长期日债收益率创新高之际 日本央行行长不轻言干预

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is not indicating any plans for intervention despite the historic rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields, focusing instead on improving the bond market trading environment [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yields on Japan's 30-year and 40-year government bonds have reached historic highs, attributed to concerns over fiscal policy ahead of the July Senate elections [1] - Prime Minister Kishida expressed caution regarding additional spending, stating that Japan's fiscal situation is "worse than Greece" [1] - Rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of BOJ's quantitative tightening are also significant factors driving Japanese bond yields higher [1] Group 2: BOJ's Policy Stance - Some market participants are calling for the BOJ to take intervention measures, but the BOJ Governor Ueda prefers to remain patient following years of large-scale bond purchases [1] - The BOJ initiated a quantitative tightening policy last summer, reducing bond purchases by 400 billion yen (approximately $2.8 billion) each quarter, while still being the largest holder of Japanese government bonds [1] - The BOJ plans to reduce its monthly bond purchase scale to 2.9 trillion yen by spring 2026 [1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Guidance - The BOJ recently concluded a series of meetings with market participants to determine the pace of bond purchase reductions, with guidance for post-April 2026 expected in a month [2] - There is significant divergence in market opinions regarding whether to slow down, speed up, or maintain the current pace of reductions [2] - Concerns from major Japanese life insurance companies and pension funds regarding long-term bond yields have been voiced, urging the BOJ to take action [2] - BOJ policy committee member Asahi Noguchi warned against hasty market interventions during periods of significant asset price volatility, as it often reflects changing market sentiments [2]