轮胎：成本上涨 业绩分化

Core Viewpoint - The tire industry in China is experiencing moderate growth in 2024, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.7% but a profit decline of 8.5%, indicating a disparity in economic performance among companies [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall performance of the tire industry is characterized by a significant divergence, with leading companies achieving substantial profit growth while many others face declining profits [4] - Major companies like Linglong Tire, Sailun Tire, and Senqilin have reported impressive profit increases of 26.01%, 31.42%, and 59.74% respectively, while Triangle Tire experienced a profit drop of 21.03% due to rising raw material costs and inventory issues [2][4] - The prices of natural and synthetic rubber have risen significantly, impacting the industry's fundamentals, with natural rubber prices reaching a seven-year high earlier in the year [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The automotive sector's growth has slowed, affecting tire demand, with a 2.7% increase in steel radial tire production in the first half of 2024, followed by a 3.2% decline in the second half [3] - The production of semi-steel tires has remained positive, with a 22% increase in the first half and a 15% increase in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Export and International Market - China's tire exports have shown growth, with a 4.9% increase in weight, a 10.5% increase in quantity, and a 5.5% increase in export value in 2024 [5] - Chinese tires are increasingly replacing foreign brands in the European and American markets due to competitive pricing, with significant demand growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The tire industry is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction due to ongoing cost pressures and trade frictions, with raw material prices likely to fluctuate but not significantly increase [7] - The demand for tires is anticipated to be bolstered by the growth of the electric vehicle market, with production and sales of new energy vehicles expected to rise by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [7] - Trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. and Mexico, pose significant risks to the industry, prompting companies to enhance their overseas operations to mitigate these challenges [8]