供需失衡的趋势未改 预计原油期货或维持偏弱运行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a weak performance in crude oil futures, with the main contract reported at 453.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.90% [1] Group 2 - Market rumors suggest that the U.S. government plans to grant 163 small refineries exemptions (SRE), equivalent to 1.36 billion gallons of blending obligations, which will be redistributed to refiners in the coming years [2] - A European official stated that the U.S. has "not yet been convinced" to accept the G7's proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil, with the EU suggesting a reference level of $50 per barrel [2] - India's crude oil imports in April decreased by 1.0% year-on-year to 21.2 million tons, while gasoline exports increased by 3.8% year-on-year to 1.2 million tons [2] Group 3 - Huawen Futures reports that Kazakhstan's crude oil production in May significantly exceeded the OPEC+ quota, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. There are expectations for greater production increases in June and potential plans for further increases in July, which may lead to substantial supply pressure on the market [3] - Baocan Futures warns of the risk of a U.S. fiscal crisis in June, which could trigger a new financial crisis and negatively impact commodity prices, including crude oil. Long-term projections indicate a gradual slowdown in crude oil demand growth, maintaining the trend of supply-demand imbalance and downward pressure on oil prices [3]