二季度产能投放集中 合成橡胶盘中低位震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing downward pressure due to increased social inventory and mixed market sentiment, despite some short-term strength expected from supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 23, the synthetic rubber futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 12,015.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,080.0 CNY before dropping to a low of 11,810.0 CNY, resulting in a decrease of 2.10% [1]. - The social inventory of synthetic rubber recorded 32,800 tons for the week ending May 21, an increase of 60 tons or 1.86% from the previous week [1]. - Over the past month, the cumulative increase in social inventory was 50 tons, reflecting a rise of 1.55% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - As of May 22, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 61,700 long positions and 64,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -3,181 contracts, which increased by 2,042 contracts compared to the previous day [1]. - Southwest Futures indicated that while supply pressure continues, demand is expected to improve due to easing tariff expectations and a significant rebound in costs, leading to a short-term bullish outlook, although the upward potential is limited [2]. - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber prices are primarily driven by supply and demand rather than external trade tensions, with recent maintenance season disruptions causing a spike in butadiene prices, which may not be sustainable [2].