解码主动权益投资新趋势：新模式、消费复苏与港股机遇成热议焦点

Core Insights - The 12th Fortune Forum focused on new models of active equity investment in the A-share market, emphasizing consumer dynamics and the resilience of the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Key speakers provided forward-looking insights on investment strategies, industry allocation, and market positioning to instill confidence and vitality in the market [1] Group 1: A-share Market Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with Q1 2025 marking a turnaround in profit growth after four years of decline [2] - The core drivers of this reversal include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle, companies operating with less burden, and a recovery in the real estate chain due to a rebound in second-hand housing [2] - Return on Equity (ROE) has significantly improved from its bottom, supported by a decrease in expense ratios offsetting operational pressures, and a recovery in asset turnover and leverage [2] - The market sentiment is expected to improve significantly due to the narrative of China's industrial transformation, including breakthroughs in AI and high-end manufacturing [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is showing structural investment opportunities, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios at near ten-year lows and institutional holdings at a bottom [3] - Catalysts for a rebound in the consumer sector include a peak in household savings rates, improved income expectations, and the re-emergence of wealth effects [3] - Investment opportunities include traditional consumer leaders with stable dividends and new consumption trends such as domestic brand growth and service consumption upgrades [3] - The second half of 2025 may present a recovery window for the consumer sector due to supportive consumption policies and a favorable profit base effect [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Resilience - Despite facing foreign capital outflow pressures, the Hong Kong stock market shows resilience supported by continuous inflows from southbound funds and increased company buybacks [4] - The Hang Seng Index has achieved a 12% annualized return in RMB terms over the past three years, highlighting the market's value proposition [4] - A GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is recommended, focusing on high-growth sectors like consumer and technology, stable cash flow assets, and companies with low leverage and high governance standards [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a fundamental approach to investment, selecting stocks based on strong earnings and favorable market conditions to achieve sustainable long-term returns [5] - The company has achieved a cumulative return of 953.86% over nearly two decades for its active equity products, positioning itself among industry leaders [5] - Continuous enhancement of professional investment capabilities is crucial for capturing certainty in investment opportunities amid global changes [5]