债务上限上演“生死时速”！参议院税改拉锯战或引爆违约危机

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate is engaged in lengthy revisions of President Trump's multi-trillion dollar tax reform and spending plan, putting unprecedented pressure on the country's fiscal capacity [1] Group 1: Legislative Process - The Republican leadership has tied the debt ceiling increase to this significant economic legislation, which accelerates the legislative process but complicates the avoidance of a debt default [1] - The tax reform bill faces a long review in the Senate, with Republican lawmakers indicating substantial modifications will be made before passage [1] - The House version of the bill narrowly passed, and any revisions sent back to the House may lead to further contention [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - As the potential default deadline approaches, the political standoff may trigger market panic, with Treasury Secretary warning that the U.S. could exhaust its borrowing capacity by August if the debt ceiling is not raised [2] - Prices of short-term Treasury bonds have dropped significantly, with yields on bonds maturing in August reaching 4.34% [2] Group 3: Internal Republican Dynamics - The ability to raise the debt ceiling hinges on whether Republicans can reach a consensus on the tax reform proposal [3] - Senate Republican leaders face challenges in securing the necessary votes, with some senators insisting on rewriting parts of the bill [3] - The process of revising the $4 trillion tax cut proposal is fraught with tension, as some Republicans demand permanent corporate tax cuts while fiscal hawks push for increased spending cuts [3] Group 4: Proposed Modifications - Senators are advocating for various amendments, including increasing child tax credits and imposing taxes on private equity and venture capital [4] - Wisconsin Senator Johnson is prepared to challenge House colleagues from high-tax states regarding state and local tax deductions, which are critical for the bill's passage [5] - Democrats, although excluded from the budget reconciliation process, can still invoke Senate rules to remove non-fiscal provisions from the bill, potentially prolonging the review process [5]