富国基金陈杰：迎接新模式，走出“悲观论”，加大成长性方向的配置

Core Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a projected recovery in profit growth starting in Q1 2025, marking the end of a four-year downtrend [3] - Key drivers of this turnaround include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle, companies operating with a leaner structure, and a recovery in the real estate sector boosting the property chain [3] - The return on equity (ROE) has significantly improved from its bottom, supported by a decrease in expense ratios that offsets operational pressures, alongside a rebound in asset turnover and leverage [3] Market Sentiment and Risks - Risk appetite peaked in Q4 2024 and is expected to shift from pessimism to optimism, driven by breakthroughs in AI research and high-end manufacturing, as well as strengthened industrial cluster advantages [4] - Concerns regarding U.S. tariff risks are deemed logically flawed and not a major long-term issue for the A-share market [5] Investment Strategy - The focus for industry allocation in the A-share market should be on identifying stocks with upward elasticity, particularly in sectors benefiting from AI-enabled manufacturing and the inventory cycle reversal [5] - The forum highlighted the importance of deep research capabilities as a key to success in active equity investment amidst market volatility and industrial transformation [5] - The company has demonstrated strong performance over 26 years, with a cumulative return of 953.86% for its active equity products over nearly two decades, positioning it among the industry leaders [5]