DraftKings' March Madness Miss: Wall Street Sees +50% Upside

Core Viewpoint - DraftKings has lowered its revenue guidance for 2025 and missed first-quarter revenue estimates, but the company still shows potential for growth despite recent challenges [4][5][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - DraftKings reported revenue of just over $1.4 billion for the first quarter, reflecting a growth rate of 20$6.3 billion, a decrease of $150 million from previous estimates [5]. - Monthly unique payers (MUPs) have increased significantly from about 900,000 at the end of 2020 to 4.3 million in the most recent quarter, indicating strong user growth [2][13]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Outlook - Despite the lowered guidance, DraftKings' stock rose over 2$55 per share, indicating a potential upside of 55% compared to the closing price on May 21 [12]. - Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating for DraftKings, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term prospects despite recent setbacks [15]. Group 3: Industry Context and Future Potential - The March Madness betting outcomes negatively impacted DraftKings, as higher-seeded teams won 82% of the time, leading to significant losses for the company [10]. - The company expects its adjusted gross margin to increase by 300 basis points in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating potential for improved profitability [13]. - DraftKings currently operates online sports betting in about half of the U.S. states, presenting substantial opportunities for future expansion [14].