UnitedHealth vs. Elevance: Which Healthcare Stock Has More Upside?

Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth Group and Elevance Health are two leading healthcare plan providers in the U.S., both recognized for their scale, diversified offerings, and solid financial performance, making them attractive defensive investments in volatile markets [1][2]. Group 1: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) - UnitedHealth is a dominant player in the industry, benefiting from its extensive scale and operational efficiency through its Optum unit, which supports its resilience against macroeconomic pressures [3]. - The company has faced significant challenges, with its market cap dropping from $566.7 billion in November 2024 to $269.1 billion currently, alongside missing earnings and revenue estimates due to lower premiums and high medical costs [4]. - A leadership change has occurred, with CEO Andrew Witty stepping down and former CEO Stephen Hemsley returning, amidst a criminal investigation related to potential Medicare fraud, raising investor concerns [5]. - Despite these challenges, UnitedHealth's diversification across various insurance segments and consistent free cash flow provide a buffer against sector-specific risks, with a dividend yield of 2.83% [6]. Group 2: Elevance Health (ELV) - Elevance Health, while smaller, is demonstrating stronger operational momentum, particularly in government-backed plans like Medicaid and Medicare Advantage [7]. - The company outperformed estimates in its latest quarterly report, with a 14.5% year-over-year increase in premiums to $40.9 billion, and improved operating expense ratio of 10.9% compared to UNH's 12.4% [8][9]. - Elevance's long-term debt to capital ratio of 39.7% is lower than UnitedHealth's 42.7%, indicating less leverage and lower vulnerability to high-interest rates [10]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Zacks Consensus Estimates currently favor Elevance, with upward revisions in EPS estimates for the current year, while UnitedHealth has seen multiple downward revisions [11]. - In terms of valuation, Elevance trades at a forward P/E of 10.60, compared to UnitedHealth's 11.76, suggesting a more attractive risk-reward profile for Elevance [12]. - Year-to-date, Elevance shares have gained 4.2%, outperforming both the industry and S&P 500, while UnitedHealth shares have declined by 41.4% due to concerns over medical costs and investigations [14]. Conclusion - Both companies are established players in the healthcare sector, with UnitedHealth offering scale and diversification but facing short-term challenges, while Elevance shows stronger execution and a more favorable growth narrative [16]. - Elevance Health is positioned as the more promising investment opportunity currently, supported by better valuation, earnings revisions, and price performance [17].