去产能、进口冲击减弱后，原奶价格何时回升？

Group 1 - The raw milk industry is expected to improve in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, following a prolonged downturn that has lasted over three years [1][3] - In 2024, the industry is projected to face a 90% loss rate, with the purchase price of raw milk falling below that of New Zealand, leading to a significant decline in domestic milk prices [1][2] - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces was reported at 3.07 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 10.5% year-on-year decrease, indicating that while prices have bottomed out, there is no clear sign of recovery [2] Group 2 - The domestic milk price has fallen below international levels, with New Zealand's price at approximately 3.2 yuan per kilogram, and the prices in the US and Europe at 3.6 yuan and 4.2 yuan per kilogram respectively [3] - The number of dairy cows in China is expected to decrease by 200,000 to 300,000 heads in 2024, reversing a five-year growth trend, with total raw milk production projected to decline by 2.8% to 40.79 million tons [3] - The average daily spray-dried fresh milk from leading dairy companies decreased from 20,000 tons in April 2024 to 13,000 tons in April 2025, indicating a positive trend in supply adjustment [3] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to reach a supply-demand balance in the third quarter of 2025, driven by the exit of small farms and consumer stimulus policies [4] - The industry is advised to explore potential milk consumption, continue to reduce production capacity to achieve supply-demand balance, and expand controllable milk sources to stabilize the market [4] - Recommendations include establishing a raw milk supply quota system based on agricultural resources in various provinces to protect the interests of farmers [4]