【财经分析】迎峰度夏临近 煤价上涨空间几何？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic thermal coal market is experiencing a continuous decline in prices due to supply-demand imbalance, high inventory levels, and weak market sentiment, despite some potential support factors emerging as summer approaches [1][2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of thermal coal remains stable, with domestic production and imports adequately meeting market needs. As of May 20, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 622 yuan per ton, down 152 yuan from the year's peak [2]. - Industrial electricity recovery is slow, leading to low downstream purchasing intentions. In April, the cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with coal consumption also declining [2][4]. - High inventory levels across the coal supply chain are exerting downward pressure on prices, with port inventories reaching historical highs and insufficient downstream demand for coal transportation [3][4]. Seasonal Factors and Future Outlook - As high temperatures arrive, daily coal consumption by coal power enterprises is expected to gradually increase, potentially boosting procurement needs during the summer peak [4]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be some support for coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall market is likely to remain weak in the short term, with prices expected to continue declining slightly before potentially stabilizing or rebounding during the summer peak [4][5]. - The anticipated turning point for daily coal consumption is expected to occur in late May, which may help to rebalance the current supply-demand situation [5].