AT&T Bets $5.75 Billion on Fiber Expansion

Core Viewpoint - AT&T is significantly enhancing its fiber internet strategy through a $5.75 billion acquisition of Lumen's Mass Markets fiber business, which will add approximately 1 million fiber subscribers and 4 million passed locations, expanding its presence in major metro areas [1][2]. Expansion Plans - Prior to the acquisition, AT&T aimed to pass 50 million fiber locations by the end of 2029; with the Lumen deal, this target has been raised to 60 million by the end of 2030, effectively doubling the current scale of its fiber network [2]. - The acquisition will allow AT&T to expand its fiber reach without incurring all the capital expenditures typically associated with such growth, as it plans to partner with an equity investor post-transaction [4][5]. Financial Strategy - AT&T intends to maintain a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of around 2.5 after the Lumen deal closes and the equity partner is found, while also planning to repurchase $10 billion of its own shares through the end of 2026 [6]. - The company expects to generate free cash flow of at least $16 billion this year, with its stock trading at over 12 times free cash flow, indicating a solid value proposition despite not being as cheap as in previous years [11]. Growth Opportunities - Lumen's fiber business has a penetration rate of approximately 25%, significantly lower than AT&T's 40% and half of its long-term target of 50%. Improving this penetration rate presents a low-cost growth opportunity for AT&T [8]. - There is potential for AT&T to sell its wireless services to the 1 million acquired fiber customers, as about 40% of AT&T's fiber customers are also wireless customers, which could lead to lower churn and higher lifetime value [9]. Strategic Acquisition - The acquisition of Lumen's fiber assets provides AT&T with an immediate increase in fiber subscribers and a pathway to expand its fiber network beyond previous plans, while also ensuring financial prudence through equity partnerships [10].