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何伟文:中美两国供应链交织互补,很难脱钩
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-05-24 13:15

Group 1 - The intertwined and complementary supply chains between China and the U.S. make it difficult for the two economies to decouple [2][4] - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 12.50% in 2019 due to tariffs, but rebounded to $451.81 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 7.90% [2] - In 2022, China's exports to the U.S. reached a record high of $581.78 billion, up 21.60% compared to 2018, indicating that the impact of tariffs was temporary [2] Group 2 - The Biden administration's "small yard, high walls" policy has had a more significant negative impact on China's exports to the U.S., which fell to $500.29 billion in 2023, a decrease of 13.15% from 2022 [2][3] - Despite the decline, exports began to recover in the third quarter of 2023, with December 2024 exports projected to reach $48.83 billion, an annualized rate of approximately $585.96 billion, slightly above the 2022 record [3] Group 3 - Experts agree that the deep economic interdependence between China and the U.S. makes a "no-cost decoupling" impossible, and the U.S. reliance on Chinese products is underestimated [4] - The current economic resilience in China is supported by strong export performance and industrial production, with monetary policy expected to play a key role in addressing external uncertainties [4][5] - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive shift in profit growth observed in Q1 2025, signaling the end of a four-year downturn [5]